Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. November 7:CA-13, CA-22, IL-17, MI-07, NV-03, NY-03, NY-19, OH-01, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34, VA-02 move from Toss-up to Leans R; CA-49, CT-05, WA-08 Leans D to Leans R; IN-01, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, TX-28 Toss-up to Leans D.Read the analysis >. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . We default to the Deluxe . The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. Read the Analysis >. The elections will coincide with the 2023 presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives and elections to the Senate; with state elections . Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 . The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. U.S. House races in which more than one incumbent ran, non-voting delegate seats that were up for election in 2022, districts targeted by national campaign committees, newly created seats following the 2020 census, Fundraising figures for party campaign committees, important dates and deadlines for the 2022 election cycle, Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results, Delaware's At-Large Congressional District, Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts' 2nd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 5th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, North Carolina's 10th Congressional District, North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, North Carolina's 12th Congressional District, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, North Carolina's 14th Congressional District, North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, North Carolina's 4th Congressional District, North Carolina's 5th Congressional District, North Carolina's 6th Congressional District, North Carolina's 7th Congressional District, North Carolina's 8th Congressional District, North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, South Carolina's 5th Congressional District, South Carolina's 6th Congressional District, South Carolina's 7th Congressional District, South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Vermont's At-Large Congressional District, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District, West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District, United States congressional non-voting members, American Samoa's At-Large Congressional District, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, Northern Mariana Islands At-Large Congressional District, United States Virgin Islands' At-Large Congressional District, Redistricting in Florida after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Georgia after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Illinois after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Michigan after the 2020 census, Redistricting in New York after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Texas after the 2020 census, Redistricting in West Virginia after the 2020 census, Congressional apportionment after the 2020 census, California's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, California's 27th Congressional District election, 2022, Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Indiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022, Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022, United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2022, Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Washington's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, National Republican Congressional Committee, State legislative and congressional redistricting after the 2020 census, Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022, Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2022, Georgia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Democratic primary), Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Democratic primary), New York's 10th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), New York's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Ohio's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Democratic primary), Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 34th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 35th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 37th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary runoff), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary), Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary runoff), Nebraska's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Nevada's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), New York's 23rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Republican primary), North Carolina's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), South Carolina's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 38th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), United States House election in Wyoming, 2022 (August 16 Republican primary), Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary), West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Election results, 2022: Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses, Number of Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot for federal and state offices, 2022, Ballot access for major and minor party candidates, Congressional incumbents not running for re-election, Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee, Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022&oldid=9073405, Pages using DynamicPageList parser function, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections, 6/28/2022; 8/23/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 4/7/2022; 6/10/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 7/5/2022 (if no federal office is involved); 7/26/2022 (if a federal office is involved), 5/3/2022 (Congress and statewide offices), 2/2/2022 (U.S. House candidates: 3/4/2022), 3/15/2022 (Congress and statewide offices only). The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Current House. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj Notice any bugs or missing polls? [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. The following table compared U.S. House race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. 213 -10. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. The Supreme Court of North Carolina ordered the postponement of the statewide primary, originally scheduled for March 8, 2022, to May 17, 2022. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. Visit. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. 2022 Review: How Republicans Lost Despite Winning the Popular Vote There were several reasons Republicans struggled to translate votes into seats, including candidate quality and strength in the. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. File history. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. See the rest of our predictions. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. Arizona. The figures shown are total numbers. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. Analysis>. MONTREAL, Que. 26th February 2023. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. Depending then on which side has the edge in the generic ballot,. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . RCP Senate Map Race Changes. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. 51 +1. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. You can also view these ratingsas a table. 50. Click here to change which version of the model you see. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. House.[5]. California. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. All Rights Reserved. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
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